Quist Will Take Bachmann’s 50% out for a Test Drive

It was reported recently that Michelle Bachmann has a 50% approval rating statewide across Minnesota. Many were somewhat surprised that she is that popular in Minnesota outside her Congressional district.  Allen Quist’s plan to challenge Tim Walz in the First Congressional District, which stretches across the length of Southern Minnesota will put that popularity to the test.  Quist has strong ties, both actual and philosophical, to Michelle Bachmann – Quist’s wife Julie is employed by Bachmann as her District Director and he embraces the same Tea-Party principles as Bachmann.

Quist has gotten a fair amount of attention on his plans to run – he is a well known figure in Minnesota Politics having managed to garner the party endorsement for governor against then-incumbent governor Arnie Carlson (Quist lost heavily in the pimary, though).  Momentum-wise, he seems to be off to a slow start – with, reportedly, no members of the media attending his Rochester press conference and, even more significantly, no GOP party leaders or elected officials standing by his side during the event.

His campaign will attempt to capitalize on public concern/tea-party anger over three issues that will be his priorities - opposition to health care reform, opposition to cap and trade (reduction of greenhouse gases), and opposition to the federal economic stimulus plan.

My view is that Quist is probably too conservative for the 1st District.  Walz fits the district well with his military background, popularity as a teacher/football coach, confidence, and energetic campaigning.  He perhaps leans a little to the left of the district as a whole, but I think it would take an equally moderate, but right leaning Republican to have  a chance of unseating him.

Quist will energize the DFL in the first district, and scare off many moderates.  The DFL will be more than happy to tie him to Bachmann and remind voters of some of his previous gems . . .  such as his assertion that men are genetically predisposed to be head of household, his opinion that the highly regarded International Baccalaureate high school program (embraced by George W. Bush among others) is  Communist/Marxist, and his unyielding viewpoints on creationism and abortion.

It will be interesting to see if Quist will manage the republican nomination (given the lack of early enthusiasm) or whether the party will embrace a more moderate candidate.

Crickets Chirping . . .

. . . is about all you hear following the first election using Instant Runoff/Ranked Choice voting in Minneapolis.  The implementation of this new and (some say) controversial method of voting has resulted in . .well . . .an uneventful election.  The people came, the people voted, the people went home, candidates got elected, the people were happy.

The gripping headlines have been things like, "New Voting System Runs Smoothly on Election Day" and "56% of Voters Prefer Instant Runoff Voting."  Not exactly the "Sky is Falling" headlines that opponents of the system were no doubt hoping for.  By all accounts the whole process, including the hand counting of ballots, went smoother than expected and was free of confusion or controversy.

This, combined with approval in St. Paul of the system, bodes well for IRV advocates who plan to carry on the fight and implement the system statewide.  Theoretically, the biggest benefiters of the system if it goes statewide would likely be The Indepence Party - a party which seems to be on a long slow march to becoming a historical footnote.  IRV could stand a chance of helping them move beyond the spoiler role that they seem to be stuck in.  Time will tell, though, if the rural areas of Minnesota are ready to change the way voting is done in the state.

Maureen Hackett's Political Contribution Problem

Polinaut reported on Maureen Hackett officially entering the race to unseat Erik Paulson in the Third Congressional district.  She will be going up against PTA President/Optometric Association Executive Director Jim Meffert in the DFL primary, and possibly Terri Bonoff (who is still deciding). Tom Sheck asked Hackett about previous contributions she had made to Ralph Nader.  She responded that she likes to "reward good ideas".  With Nader receiving only 4% of the vote in the the Third District in 2000 . . .there might not be a lot of voters there who agree with her on that point.  With donations to Nader as late as September 2005, she will probably have some explaining to do to the delegates at the nominating convention

Harder to explain, though, will be her January 2004 donation of $1,250 to the National Republican Congressional Committee.  That's an increase $950 over her $300 donation in March 2003 to the National Republican Congressional Committee.

Now, granted, she has donated to lots of Democrats as well.  Nader is liked by some Democrats so, hard feelings aside from the Gore/Bush debacle, that one can likely be forgiven.  But giving money to the organization that is working to defeat the office for which you want to be nominated will likely be a deal breaker for many delegates.

I do have to say, though, that she has the coolest job title in politics.  I have no idea what a forensic psychiatrist does, but it definitely sounds like it would belong to the lead character in a very hip crime-drama show.

Anyway, contribution information can be found at Open Secrets.

A Tale of Two Tims

In 2006, after the governor's election I noted signs of a "new warm and fuzzy T-Paw." The newly (narrowly) re-elected Guv was acknowledging global warming, advocating extending healthcare and working constructively with unions. Well, no surprise that with T-Paw now in the Republican presidential primary field he is becoming a lot less warm and fuzzy and making a clear shift to the right. Here's a snapshot comparing things I pointed out in 2006:

Global Warming
2006 - T-Paw introduces his bold "Next Generation Energy Initiative" which he signed into law in 2007 - and included aggressive goals for reduction of greenhouse gas emissions in Minnesota.

2009 - T-Paw backs away from any acknlowedgment that human activity contributes to climate change and says Cap and Trade plans to reduce greenhouse emissions would wreck the national economy. (Think Progress and The American Spectator note the change)

Healthcare Reform
2006 - T-Paw does "about face on health care" . . . says he wants to extend health insurance coverage to all Minnesota children.

2009 - T-Paw shifts his healthcare rhetoric from helping ininsured children to . . . I don't know . . .he sounds more like Palin. Here's how he's describing the current care reform proposals

“It’s rare for Congress to work on weekends, but even rarer that a bill this anti-freedom comes along, it’s anti-freedom because it raises taxes, it’s anti-freedom because it explodes bureaucracy. And it’s anti-freedom because it puts government in charge of health care decisions.”

Making Nice With Unions
2006 - T-Paw gives state employees, an unprompted, a one-time health insurance premium "holiday" due to an excess surplus in the Minnesota . . ."

2009 - T-Paw (in 2008 actually) vetoes resolution backing Employee Free Choice Act.

These things are really no surprise . . it's common for presidential candidates to have to move toward the more extreme parts of their party to secure a nomination, but it's still important to hold them accountable when a change in position is due to political pandering rather than a thoughtful consideration of the issues. You can make your own decision on T-Paw's motives . . . just don't expect T-Paw to be warm and fuzzy anymore.

Norm's "Center Right America" .. oh and btw, I won the election

Last two times I heard Norm on the radio he was talking about "Center Right America." It sounds like an effort to brand independents and/or right leaning moderates and claim them as his own. He has always had a skill for sensing which way the wind is blowing, so his twenty minute speech at Harvard on the subject is worth a listen.

Interesting side note. In answering a question after the speech Norm claims that he won the election. The questioner asked about the trend of moderate Republicans losing elections. Norm responded, "I gotta tell ya . . . I got more votes. I got more votes on election night. When it came to counting the absentee ballots, they counted more of the other guys'."

It's the first time since the election I've heard him strike a note of sour grapes or make any sort of claim that he was robbed of the election. This strikes me as sort of a slip up on his part - getting off message from the image he seems to have beeen trying to convey of himself to public.

Advantage . . . Norm

The latest Rassmussen poll shows just what a large advantage Norm Coleman would have if he chooses to run for Governor. He garners 50% support - a full 39 points ahead of the nearest republican competitor. Seems like this should be a no-brainer for him. He is the only candidate on both sides that has name recognition (other than Dayton . . but it's hard to see Dayton winning the governors spot), he would be able to energize his base by capitalizing on the frustration and sense of loss experienced by his supporters in the Senate recount, and I can see a lot of nice Minnesotans saying, "oh, that last election was so hard on the poor guy . . . let's give him this one . . . pass me some hot dish deary. (can you say 8%?)

Obviously, if he runs, these numbers will get a lot closer as Minnesota settles into its 45/45/10ish split - but he has to be considered the early prohibitive favorite right now, especially with recent elections showing independents breaking back toward the Republican party. The DFL will have to emerge from the primary with a strong and well-liked candidate to have any chance of winning back the governor's office.

Right now, Norm is still pondering a run . . .or strategizing. I'm not sure what he gains by waiting till next year to "decide" as he has indicated. Seems like that leaves the risk that another Republican can gain traction in the interim - whereas if he gets in early, most of the field would probably clear out. Or, maybe Norm is really enjoying the fruits of life in the private sector and really has not made a decision. Time will tell.

Those Wacky 8-Percenters

The Strib is reporting a Rasmussen poll on the state-wide approval ratings of various Minnesota Politicians. The poll shows, among other things, good news for both our Senators . .and really no real bad news for anyone, with the reported approval ratings not below 50% for anyone - which is really kind of surprising given that a lot of the analysis following the governor elections out east a few weeks ago was that people were mad at incumbents - I don't think anyone has really figured out what the message from those elections was (more on that later).

There was one thing that really caught my eye in the poll numbers, though. Statewide 58% of people polled approve of the job that Klobuchar is doing - not surprising, she has shown herself to be a nice combination of tough, smart, thoughtful, and very Minnesotan. Now the surprising part is that 50% of people polled statewide approve of the job that Michelle Bachmann is doing. Now, my point here is not to say that I think Klobuchar is good and Michelle is bad - if you're a socially conservative, anti-government libertarian, Michelle is your gal. My point is that, apparently, 8% of people in this state approve of the job that both Bachmann and Klobuchar are doing. Huh?!?!?

So, who are these people? Do they just appreciate politicians who are good at what they do, regardless of what they do? Are they just too Minnesota nice to tell a pollster anything bad about anyone? Are they not paying attention? Bachmann and Klobuchar are so far on either end of the ideological spectrum, it's hard to understand how one person can approve of both.

Our recent elections in Minnesota seem to show that we have a near 45/45 split between liberals and conservatives. Anyone who can figure out what the heck these 8% are thinking will have a long and impressive political future in Minnesota.

. . and . . . .we're back.

So, after taking three years to rest up from my red hot smoking blog, I'm all fired up and ready write. Now that we are a year out from the presidential election and the winners and losers have settled into their new rolls, it should be an interesting time to sit back and watch the show. From the gaggle of guv candidates flocking across the state, to T-Paw's rightward migration to prez candidate, there's a lot to consider. Let's take a look at what up in Minnesota politics, shall we?

A New Warm & Fuzzy T-Paw?

"Our Global Climate is Warming . . "

Minnesota needs:

• More renewables
• More energy conservation
• Less carbon emissions

No that's not a DFL proposal. . . or even a the musings of a classic Minnesota moderate Republican Governer - such as Elmer Anderson. It's from T-Paw's recently announced "Next Generation Energy Iniative"

Sounds liberal, yes . . . but, there's a trend here. Check out a couple of other recent headlines:

• Governor Tim Pawlenty announced today that state employees will enjoy a one-time health insurance premium "holiday" due to an excess surplus in the Minnesota . . ." (11/29/06)
  

• Gov. Pawlenty does "about face on health care" . . . says he wants to extend health insurance coverage to all Minnesota children. (11/14/06)

Spending taxpayer dollars to make nice with State employees?. . . inching toward universal healthcare? . . . and . . . eghad! . . . fighting global warming?!?!

Are these the earnest efforts of a narrowly elected governor saying "message received" to the electorate?

Or is this the grooming of a centrist, Vice President T-Paw?

Hmmmm . . . .Stay tuned.

And They're Off ! . . .

O.k. everyone, 'breaks over . . .2008 is here.

The Washington Post named Norm Coleman's seat as one of the ten most-vulnerable Senate seats to flip in 2008.

It noted that Betty McCollum would be the strongest of the Dem candidates, but she likely wouldn't run because of her recent appointment to the "powerful" Appropriations Committee. The author promptly dissmisses Al Franken and moves right on to Tim Walz and Mike Cirisi as possible strong contenders.

That would be a pretty quick move up the ladder for Mr. Walz, he hasn't even cast a vote yet in his new job . . . is he already the next Barak Obama?

It will be interesting to see how the candidates sort out in the next year. Stay Tuned.

Do you bite your thumb at me, Sir?

The Strib is on the right track this morning - leading with a story about whether State Government is headed for "Cooperation or Gridlock?" That is the appropriate question at this point. Right now everyone is saying the right things, but are we just in a post-election honeymoon that will end in an ugly divorce? Only time will tell.

I was hopeful that cooperation would prevail while watching T-Paw's extremely subdued, "message-received," election speech, but was less hopeful when the DFL Senate chose L-Pog as their leader. It would be interesting to know what L-Pog's pitch was to the caucus in the closed meeting and whether it was "choose me 'cause I'll kick their butts" or "choose me because, despite my history, I really can play nice."

Here's my brief take on how the DFL should approach the issues identified in the Strib article:

1. Abortion - "run awaaaaaay!" an early attack on some of the limits put in place during the Republican years would only be vetoed by T-Paw while leading to acrimony across the State. It would also, likely, embolden the Governor to assert himself as the stalwart against liberal excess. Any effort at going after the "social" issues should wait until there are victories in the basic, kitchen-table, issues. As M-Kel's sign says, "Education, Health Care, Property Taxes."

2. Early Childhood Eduction - This is a winner. Studies show you get the biggest bang for your buck when spending education money on the little guys & galls. It's also hard to see how people can be against spending money here when it makes good policy sense and 50% of kids are starting kindergarten unprepared.

3. Education - A good issue, but a bit divisive. Definately need to make a move to reduce the cost of attending college - I think that's a winner all the way around. Any effort to put money into K-12, needs to integrate some of T-Paw's accountability measures. Much of the public feels that increases in funding goes into teacher salaries and doesn't do anything to improve the classroom. To some degree, they're right, but we need to be able to attract talented teachers, as well. Tough issue.

4. Health Care - This is a no brainer. Everybody needs to work together here and accomplish something, otherwise the public will throw them all out next time.

5. Smoking Ban - Tough Issue. Particularly becuase the DFL has chosen Twin Cities representation in its leadership and has left out the outstate. Generally, outstate doesn't like the smoking ban as much as the metro area. Passing this early would only confirm to conservative leaning outstaters that they've lost their voice at the capitol to urban liberals.

6. Taxes - There is danger in raising the gas tax (Do you hear the Republicans in 2008 . . . "We TOLD you!"). In addition, everyone is going to be annoyed that we voted for the Transportation Amendment and now, after the fact, we're being told, "Oh, by the way, that isn't going to help - thanks, but we're going to raise your taxes anyway). Conversly, property tax relief is a no-brainer - especially with a 1 billion dollar surplus anticipated. Even something as silly as "Jesse Checks" would please the public. (What would those be called? Poggy-Checks? Timmy-Checks? I don't know). The question, though, is whether you somehow provide direct relief or provide relief to the Cities/Counties in the hope that it translates into a reduction (increase in LGA, etc.)

7. Transportation - Good issue, but balance is needed between things like light rail and fixing outstate potholes. Again, look for charges that the DFL has been hijacked by urban liberals and anger over a possible DFL gas tax increase after the public was pursuaded to pass the transportation amendment.

First is First

Interesting story on NPR this morning about a study finding that the candidate listed first on the ballot gets 2% more votes. Because of this, some states (such as Ohio) rotate the ballot position between precincts so that each candidate has the first position before an equal number of voters.

Given the number of close races across the country, the rotation of candidate names makes a lot of sense. Mark Ritchie . . . are you out there?

O.K. . . I was wrong.

Back in 2004, I wrote about some Republican scandals and acts of arrogance that were in the news and offered a well-reasoned contra-view that events like these would actually hurt the Democrats by making all politicians look bad and stifling voter turnout in 2006. Turns out I was wrong. The scandals were a top item in exit polling and the independents showed up and broke toward the Dems.

Seemed insightful at the time.

It's MinnePoliti Time

Greetings and welcome to the new "MinnePoliti" - a blog about Minnesota Politics.

This blog is a rebirth, of sorts, of the MinnePolitiSphere blog that went quiet a while back when my law school career overwhelmed my efforts at blogging.

After watching this past Tuesday's earth-shifting election (or "thumpin," as our Commander in Chief aptly charactarized it) and then watching the New Governor (yes, that wasn't an acceptance speech Governor T-Paw would have given), I couldn't resist getting back to the keyboard to follow the developments.

It will be extremely interesting tracking what happens at the State Capitol as both the DFL and Republicans adjust to their new roles in the new political climate.