A Tale of Two Tims

In 2006, after the governor's election I noted signs of a "new warm and fuzzy T-Paw." The newly (narrowly) re-elected Guv was acknowledging global warming, advocating extending healthcare and working constructively with unions. Well, no surprise that with T-Paw now in the Republican presidential primary field he is becoming a lot less warm and fuzzy and making a clear shift to the right. Here's a snapshot comparing things I pointed out in 2006:

Global Warming
2006 - T-Paw introduces his bold "Next Generation Energy Initiative" which he signed into law in 2007 - and included aggressive goals for reduction of greenhouse gas emissions in Minnesota.

2009 - T-Paw backs away from any acknlowedgment that human activity contributes to climate change and says Cap and Trade plans to reduce greenhouse emissions would wreck the national economy. (Think Progress and The American Spectator note the change)

Healthcare Reform
2006 - T-Paw does "about face on health care" . . . says he wants to extend health insurance coverage to all Minnesota children.

2009 - T-Paw shifts his healthcare rhetoric from helping ininsured children to . . . I don't know . . .he sounds more like Palin. Here's how he's describing the current care reform proposals

“It’s rare for Congress to work on weekends, but even rarer that a bill this anti-freedom comes along, it’s anti-freedom because it raises taxes, it’s anti-freedom because it explodes bureaucracy. And it’s anti-freedom because it puts government in charge of health care decisions.”

Making Nice With Unions
2006 - T-Paw gives state employees, an unprompted, a one-time health insurance premium "holiday" due to an excess surplus in the Minnesota . . ."

2009 - T-Paw (in 2008 actually) vetoes resolution backing Employee Free Choice Act.

These things are really no surprise . . it's common for presidential candidates to have to move toward the more extreme parts of their party to secure a nomination, but it's still important to hold them accountable when a change in position is due to political pandering rather than a thoughtful consideration of the issues. You can make your own decision on T-Paw's motives . . . just don't expect T-Paw to be warm and fuzzy anymore.

Norm's "Center Right America" .. oh and btw, I won the election

Last two times I heard Norm on the radio he was talking about "Center Right America." It sounds like an effort to brand independents and/or right leaning moderates and claim them as his own. He has always had a skill for sensing which way the wind is blowing, so his twenty minute speech at Harvard on the subject is worth a listen.

Interesting side note. In answering a question after the speech Norm claims that he won the election. The questioner asked about the trend of moderate Republicans losing elections. Norm responded, "I gotta tell ya . . . I got more votes. I got more votes on election night. When it came to counting the absentee ballots, they counted more of the other guys'."

It's the first time since the election I've heard him strike a note of sour grapes or make any sort of claim that he was robbed of the election. This strikes me as sort of a slip up on his part - getting off message from the image he seems to have beeen trying to convey of himself to public.

Advantage . . . Norm

The latest Rassmussen poll shows just what a large advantage Norm Coleman would have if he chooses to run for Governor. He garners 50% support - a full 39 points ahead of the nearest republican competitor. Seems like this should be a no-brainer for him. He is the only candidate on both sides that has name recognition (other than Dayton . . but it's hard to see Dayton winning the governors spot), he would be able to energize his base by capitalizing on the frustration and sense of loss experienced by his supporters in the Senate recount, and I can see a lot of nice Minnesotans saying, "oh, that last election was so hard on the poor guy . . . let's give him this one . . . pass me some hot dish deary. (can you say 8%?)

Obviously, if he runs, these numbers will get a lot closer as Minnesota settles into its 45/45/10ish split - but he has to be considered the early prohibitive favorite right now, especially with recent elections showing independents breaking back toward the Republican party. The DFL will have to emerge from the primary with a strong and well-liked candidate to have any chance of winning back the governor's office.

Right now, Norm is still pondering a run . . .or strategizing. I'm not sure what he gains by waiting till next year to "decide" as he has indicated. Seems like that leaves the risk that another Republican can gain traction in the interim - whereas if he gets in early, most of the field would probably clear out. Or, maybe Norm is really enjoying the fruits of life in the private sector and really has not made a decision. Time will tell.

Those Wacky 8-Percenters

The Strib is reporting a Rasmussen poll on the state-wide approval ratings of various Minnesota Politicians. The poll shows, among other things, good news for both our Senators . .and really no real bad news for anyone, with the reported approval ratings not below 50% for anyone - which is really kind of surprising given that a lot of the analysis following the governor elections out east a few weeks ago was that people were mad at incumbents - I don't think anyone has really figured out what the message from those elections was (more on that later).

There was one thing that really caught my eye in the poll numbers, though. Statewide 58% of people polled approve of the job that Klobuchar is doing - not surprising, she has shown herself to be a nice combination of tough, smart, thoughtful, and very Minnesotan. Now the surprising part is that 50% of people polled statewide approve of the job that Michelle Bachmann is doing. Now, my point here is not to say that I think Klobuchar is good and Michelle is bad - if you're a socially conservative, anti-government libertarian, Michelle is your gal. My point is that, apparently, 8% of people in this state approve of the job that both Bachmann and Klobuchar are doing. Huh?!?!?

So, who are these people? Do they just appreciate politicians who are good at what they do, regardless of what they do? Are they just too Minnesota nice to tell a pollster anything bad about anyone? Are they not paying attention? Bachmann and Klobuchar are so far on either end of the ideological spectrum, it's hard to understand how one person can approve of both.

Our recent elections in Minnesota seem to show that we have a near 45/45 split between liberals and conservatives. Anyone who can figure out what the heck these 8% are thinking will have a long and impressive political future in Minnesota.

. . and . . . .we're back.

So, after taking three years to rest up from my red hot smoking blog, I'm all fired up and ready write. Now that we are a year out from the presidential election and the winners and losers have settled into their new rolls, it should be an interesting time to sit back and watch the show. From the gaggle of guv candidates flocking across the state, to T-Paw's rightward migration to prez candidate, there's a lot to consider. Let's take a look at what up in Minnesota politics, shall we?