Advantage . . . Norm

The latest Rassmussen poll shows just what a large advantage Norm Coleman would have if he chooses to run for Governor. He garners 50% support - a full 39 points ahead of the nearest republican competitor. Seems like this should be a no-brainer for him. He is the only candidate on both sides that has name recognition (other than Dayton . . but it's hard to see Dayton winning the governors spot), he would be able to energize his base by capitalizing on the frustration and sense of loss experienced by his supporters in the Senate recount, and I can see a lot of nice Minnesotans saying, "oh, that last election was so hard on the poor guy . . . let's give him this one . . . pass me some hot dish deary. (can you say 8%?)

Obviously, if he runs, these numbers will get a lot closer as Minnesota settles into its 45/45/10ish split - but he has to be considered the early prohibitive favorite right now, especially with recent elections showing independents breaking back toward the Republican party. The DFL will have to emerge from the primary with a strong and well-liked candidate to have any chance of winning back the governor's office.

Right now, Norm is still pondering a run . . .or strategizing. I'm not sure what he gains by waiting till next year to "decide" as he has indicated. Seems like that leaves the risk that another Republican can gain traction in the interim - whereas if he gets in early, most of the field would probably clear out. Or, maybe Norm is really enjoying the fruits of life in the private sector and really has not made a decision. Time will tell.

Those Wacky 8-Percenters

The Strib is reporting a Rasmussen poll on the state-wide approval ratings of various Minnesota Politicians. The poll shows, among other things, good news for both our Senators . .and really no real bad news for anyone, with the reported approval ratings not below 50% for anyone - which is really kind of surprising given that a lot of the analysis following the governor elections out east a few weeks ago was that people were mad at incumbents - I don't think anyone has really figured out what the message from those elections was (more on that later).

There was one thing that really caught my eye in the poll numbers, though. Statewide 58% of people polled approve of the job that Klobuchar is doing - not surprising, she has shown herself to be a nice combination of tough, smart, thoughtful, and very Minnesotan. Now the surprising part is that 50% of people polled statewide approve of the job that Michelle Bachmann is doing. Now, my point here is not to say that I think Klobuchar is good and Michelle is bad - if you're a socially conservative, anti-government libertarian, Michelle is your gal. My point is that, apparently, 8% of people in this state approve of the job that both Bachmann and Klobuchar are doing. Huh?!?!?

So, who are these people? Do they just appreciate politicians who are good at what they do, regardless of what they do? Are they just too Minnesota nice to tell a pollster anything bad about anyone? Are they not paying attention? Bachmann and Klobuchar are so far on either end of the ideological spectrum, it's hard to understand how one person can approve of both.

Our recent elections in Minnesota seem to show that we have a near 45/45 split between liberals and conservatives. Anyone who can figure out what the heck these 8% are thinking will have a long and impressive political future in Minnesota.

. . and . . . .we're back.

So, after taking three years to rest up from my red hot smoking blog, I'm all fired up and ready write. Now that we are a year out from the presidential election and the winners and losers have settled into their new rolls, it should be an interesting time to sit back and watch the show. From the gaggle of guv candidates flocking across the state, to T-Paw's rightward migration to prez candidate, there's a lot to consider. Let's take a look at what up in Minnesota politics, shall we?

A New Warm & Fuzzy T-Paw?

"Our Global Climate is Warming . . "

Minnesota needs:

• More renewables
• More energy conservation
• Less carbon emissions

No that's not a DFL proposal. . . or even a the musings of a classic Minnesota moderate Republican Governer - such as Elmer Anderson. It's from T-Paw's recently announced "Next Generation Energy Iniative"

Sounds liberal, yes . . . but, there's a trend here. Check out a couple of other recent headlines:

• Governor Tim Pawlenty announced today that state employees will enjoy a one-time health insurance premium "holiday" due to an excess surplus in the Minnesota . . ." (11/29/06)
  

• Gov. Pawlenty does "about face on health care" . . . says he wants to extend health insurance coverage to all Minnesota children. (11/14/06)

Spending taxpayer dollars to make nice with State employees?. . . inching toward universal healthcare? . . . and . . . eghad! . . . fighting global warming?!?!

Are these the earnest efforts of a narrowly elected governor saying "message received" to the electorate?

Or is this the grooming of a centrist, Vice President T-Paw?

Hmmmm . . . .Stay tuned.

And They're Off ! . . .

O.k. everyone, 'breaks over . . .2008 is here.

The Washington Post named Norm Coleman's seat as one of the ten most-vulnerable Senate seats to flip in 2008.

It noted that Betty McCollum would be the strongest of the Dem candidates, but she likely wouldn't run because of her recent appointment to the "powerful" Appropriations Committee. The author promptly dissmisses Al Franken and moves right on to Tim Walz and Mike Cirisi as possible strong contenders.

That would be a pretty quick move up the ladder for Mr. Walz, he hasn't even cast a vote yet in his new job . . . is he already the next Barak Obama?

It will be interesting to see how the candidates sort out in the next year. Stay Tuned.